USD, Retail Sales Price Analysis & News
- Stellar US Retail Sales Suggests Upside Risks to GDP
- USD and US Yields Extend Higher, Gold Drops
US Retail Sales Surge, US Dollar Extends Higher
A sizeable beat on the latest retail sales data, which has also surpassed the high estimate. The retail control figure, which is important for GDP trackers, rose 6%, surpassing expectations of 0.8% and beating the high estimate of 4.3%. In turn, this will likely feedthrough into upward revisions for US GDP. The initial reaction has seen the USD extend gains across the board to hit fresh session highs with US yields also picking up, while gold remains on the backfoot as 1764 comes into focus. (Full analysis on gold here).
Going forward, this will undoubtfully raise questions as to whether $1.9trillion of fiscal stimulus is needed an argument that has been raised by Larry Summers recently, who stated that the output gap may not be large enough to support another round of stimulus. Alongside this, the US retail sales data will likely fuel concerns over a spike in inflation, which could see more conservative Democratic senators, such as Manchin call for a lower stimulus package. That said, the S&P 500 has also dipped following the retail sales and PPI data with markets back to the good news is bad news mantra, given that good news may raise expectations that the Fed could reign in monetary policy stimulus sooner than markets expect.
DATA OVERVIEW: DailyFX Economic Calendar
USD, Gold, Rates Reaction to Retail Sales: Intra-day Time Frame
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