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US Dollar Price Action Setup for NFP: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD Levels


USD, NFP Price Analysis & News

  • All Eyes on NFP After Stellar ADP Report
  • Weekly Closes Important for G10 FX

The main highlight for today’s session will be the Non-Farm Payrolls report, where yesterday’s strong ADP (978k vs 650k exp) provided a sneak peek reaction as to what is to come, should we see a sizeable beat on NFP. That said, it is important to note that the ADP report hasn’t exactly had the best of track records in predicting the NFP data in recent time, with last month’s reading being the prime example (Chart 1). Therefore, this raises the risk that USD bulls may have gotten ahead of themselves. What’s more, given the sizeable move post-ADP, this raises the bar for NFP to surprise on the upside, meaning that you could see a beat relative expectations, however, disappointment may ensue should NFP print below the ADP figure.

US NFP vs ADP (Chart 1)

Eyes on Weekly Close as Ranges Begin to Break

As is the usually the case, the pre-NFP lull has set in and while some excitement in markets is expected once the NFP data is released, with recent ranges now breaking across G10 FX, where markets close will be particularly important.

EUR/USDhas made a firm break below trendline support, raising downside risks. As 1.21 is tested a close below opens the door to 1.2040-50.

EUR/USD Chart: Daily Time Frame

Source: Refinitiv

EUR/USD Tech Levels

GBP/USD remains firm as 1.4100 keeps the pair afloat in the face of renewed USD demand. Cross-selling in EUR/GBP has also underpinned GBP. The uptrend in GBP/USD intact with 1.40 the key pivot zone.

GBP/USD Tech Levels

AUD/USD: With little interest to take AUD above 0.7750, the pair is back down to support at 0.7640-50. AUD/USD remains nestled in its broad 0.7600-0.7900 range and should the NFP disappoint, this is expected to continue with the pair likely to see another look above 0.7700 in reaction.

AUD/USD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame

Source: Refinitiv

AUD/USD Tech Levels

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